News
05.06.2014
Russian drought mirrors previous wheat failure years, warns analyst
He added that the current rainfall pattern is similar to two previous recent years when drought ravaged wheat crops in Russia and Kazakhstan and led to a significant drop in output – 2010 and 2012 (see below graphic).
“May 2010 in particular is a very good match with this past May, showing a large area of dryness in west central Russia and Kazakhstan and wetter than normal conditions in Belarus and much of Ukraine,” said Tapley.
He continued that while these analogue years do not by any means guarantee large production declines in Russia and Kazakhstan, there are two additional factors that are causing concern.
“First, the forecast over the next week shows dry weather continuing across much of western Russia, which would allow dryness to worsen further in Volga Valley and expand into the North Caucasus region,” he said.
“Secondly, MDA’s summer forecast calls for below normal rainfall across western Kazakhstan and most of southwestern Russia. These factors, combined with the analog years of 2010 and 2012, do not paint a very favourable picture for crops in the Former Soviet Union this season.”
