News
30.04.2009
Kazakhstan production, exports expected to rebound - FAS
The Kazakhstan wheat crop is forecast to increase to 14 ММТ and exports to rebound to 6.5 ММТ in 2009-10 assuming the weather remains normal, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) on April 17. Kazakhstan's 2008-09 wheat crop of 12.5 ММТ was well below the previous year's record, FAS said. The 2008-09 wheat exports faced more competition from Russia as well as the economic slowdown in import demand, and therefore the export forecast has been cut to 3.5 ММТ. FAS said Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Agriculture has officially forecast 2009 total wheat planting area at 13,300 hectares. Based on current weather and soil conditions and moisture content, the ministry is assuming average yields this year, and therefore forecasting grain production in 2009-10 to be 10% higher than 2008-09. However, FAS forecasts 2009-10 wheat production at 14 ММТ assuming a crop yield of about 1.08 ММТ per hectare.
Wheat consumption in Kazakhstan is forecast to remain stable, according to FAS. The February 2009 national census shows that there are no significant changes in the country's population of 15.7 million people. Per capita wheat consumption is assumed to be stable. Although there have been many reports of plans for large-scale livestock production projects, all remain far from implementation, so wheat consumption for feed also is assumed to be stable, according to FAS.
In response to the global commodity price explosion, Kazakhstan introduced restrictive grain export licensing in September 2007; restrictions expired on Sept. 1, 2008, FAS said. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, the government does not plan to impose any export bans for grains in future. According to recent reports from grain traders, 2008-09 exports have come to a near standstill, and therefore 2008-09 forecast has been reduced to 3.5 ММТ. Post forecasts MY2009-10 wheat exports to rebound to 6.5 ММТ. As part of its response to the global economic slowdown, Kazakhstan plans to implement $1 billion for various support programs: sowing seeds quality testing, agrochemical and agro climatic support to agriculture, quarantine pests, plant diseases and weeds program, crop insurance, irrigation water supply support program, cotton fiber quality testing. FAS said.
