News
15.06.2009
Canadian Wheat Board sees 18 percent less wheat
Farmers in Western Canada are expected to harvest less wheat, canola, barley and oats for the 2009/10 marketing year as cool weather and dry soils cause crop growth to lag, the Canadian Wheat Board said on Thursday.
All-wheat production in the region - one of the world's largest exporters of wheat used to make bread and pasta - will drop 18 percent to 20.8 million tonnes from the 2008/09 harvest of 25.5 million tonnes and the five-year average of 23 million tonnes, the CWB said at an industry briefing on crop conditions. The projections assume average summer temperatures and precipitation.
Western Canada farmers have been under pressure this spring from flooding that delayed seeding in Manitoba's Red River Valley, a key spring wheat growing area, dryness in Alberta and Saskatchewan and widespread cool weather that has delayed crop development. "The crops will be under significant stress, if we don't see much rain soon," said Bruce Burnett, director of weather and market analysis for the Wheat Board. Wheat, durum and barley crops are 10 to 14 days behind normal development due to the cold, the CWB said.
The CWB made its lowest projection for all-wheat yield in seven years, at 33.4 bushels per acre. The bright side of lower yields is they tend to result in higher protein levels, a key measure of wheat quality. Planting the crop remains another major concern for many farmers. Between 1 million and 1.5 million acres are unseeded, Burnett said, not including canola fields being assessed for frost damage.
Many of those acres can still be planted in the next 10 days with dry, warm weather, he said. Wheat and barley were largely unaffected by recent frosts, which would have inflicted more damage had crops grown at a normal pace, Burnett said. The CWB projects canola production to drop 19 percent to 10.2 million tonnes from 12.6 million tonnes last year, but to stay ahead of the five-year average of 9.7 million tonnes.
The CWB has a monopoly on sales of Prairie wheat and barley to millers, maltsters and export markets, and is one of the world's largest exporters of wheat used for bread and pasta. Any further reductions to the wheat crop would cut Canada's exports, Burnett said. Flooding in Manitoba caused farmers to switch 200,000 to 300,000 acres normally seeded to spring wheat into other crops, mainly soybeans, he said.
Prairie farmers suffered through a cool spring last year, too, before ideal summer weather generated big yields. Conditions are worse this spring, Burnett said. In fact, the CWB's model for projections may have understated the impact dryness will have on yields and production, he said. Durum, the wheat used to make pasta is projected to fall to 4.4 million tonnes from 5.5 million last year and slightly below the five-year average.
The CWB projects barley production to drop 20 percent to 8.9 million tonnes, well below last year's 11.2 million-tonne harvest and the five-year average of 10.9 million. The Wheat Board projects a smaller oat crop but roughly the same flax harvest as last year. Weather problems for the wheat crop don't end at the Canadian border.
The world wheat crop is projected to drop significantly from last year's record production of 682 million tonnes given smaller winter wheat production in key US areas and dryness in Argentina. The only major exporter likely to increase production is Australia, the CWB said, while North Africa is likely to import less durum because of a likely large harvest.
Reuters
