News
02.07.2013
Expert prognosticates no deep hryvnia devaluation
Deep hryvnia devaluation should not be expected in connection with the outlooks of international rating agencies. Director of the Bleyzer Foundation in Ukraine Oleh Ustenko has said about this in his comments to Ukrinform.
“There will be no deep hryvnia devaluation as, perhaps, some people expect... The NBU will simply change the foreign currency corridor, create a play for the maneuver and we will see instead of the hryvnia rate fluctuation at plus-minus 2.5%, fluctuations at plus-minus 5%,” the expert said, commenting on the Fitch agency outlooks. The agency forecasts that in 2013 the dollar will cost UAH 8.5.
Oleh Ustenko also noted that these rate fluctuations and the dollar rate at UAH 8.4-8.5 was prognosticated by the government as far back as in August 2012, when the draft state budget for this year was formed.
At the same time, according to the expert, for the NBU, it is worth revising the basis of the credit and money policy for H2, in particular, to increase a level of the hryvnia possible devaluation from 2.5% to 5%. “It is necessary to stimulate the economy. The main task of the regulator is not the rate support, but the search of additional stimuli for the economy development. Exporters may win from moderate devaluation,” the expert added.
According to him, the Fitch outlook regarding Ukraines economic development is rather “guardedly optimistic.” “Fitch forecasts growth and speeding up of its rates in 2014. The outlook is objectively negative, since the world economy is unstable, and any export-oriented country may suffer. Ukraine is not an exception,” the economist explained.
He also noted that the volumes of gold and currency reserves in absolute volumes remain unchangeable over recent several months. And with taking into account the import substitution programs, implementations of energy efficiency principles, their volume at USD 24 billion will be equal three-month coverage of imports.
In addition, Ukraine paid up 50% of external obligations in May without making a new pressure on the budget. “Yes, large payments on external obligations are in prospect for Ukraine in H2 this year and in 2014. But about 50% of obligations was returned in May this year and this was not especially critical, no new critical pressure on the budget has emerged,” the expert stressed.
