News
12.10.2009
Australia's wheat forecast likely seen edging up
Estimates of Australia's 2009/10 wheat crop are expected to nudge higher in coming weeks as favourable weather has lifted prospects in Western Australia and the country's southern wheat belts ahead of harvest.
Australian Crop Forecasters said on Friday it was likely to raise its estimate next week beyond its current forecast of 22 million tonnes, largely as a result of an increased estimate for Western Australia, the country's top grain-exporting state.
"Conditions are pretty good over there," said ACF's Melbourne-based analyst Gavin Warburton.
"There were a lot of crops planted and the outlook for rainfall is pretty good as well."
This week, Western Australia's state government estimated that the state could harvest between 9 million and 10.5 million tonnes of wheat, compared with 8.9 million tonnes in 2008/09, of which more than 90 percent was destined for export markets.
Warburton said the harvest in the country's second-largest grain-producing state, New South Wales, would be downgraded after dry weather had killed off some crops, but this did not threaten the national forecast.
The New South Wales state government estimates that up to one million tonnes could be lost from wheat production, which in 2008/09 totalled 6.8 million tonnes.
"Our crops and pastures rely on good rainfall in September and for many this didn't eventuate, crushing hopes of a decent harvest for winter crops with many opened up to grazing livestock or turned to hay or silage," said State Minister for Primary Industries Ian Macdonald on Friday.
He said 67.7 percent of New South Wales was now drought declared, up from 65.9 percent a month ago.
Current estimates from private and government forecasters for the national 2009/10 crop range between 21.8 million and 23 million tonnes, making it likely that 2009/10 will be the best season since 25.2 million tonnes were harvested in 2005/06.
Last season 21.4 million tonnes were harvested, nearly double the previous harvest when drought cut crops in eastern Australia.
Australia is the world's fourth-largest wheat exporter and is likely to ship 14.6 million tonnes in 2009/10 compared with 13.4 million tonnes in 2008/09, the government's commodity forecaster said last month.
Farm consultancy firm Profarmer said in a report on Friday that its crops condition index for New South Wales had dropped to 27 points, down 17 points from the same time a year ago. A reading above 50 points represents above-average conditions.
But nationally, Profarmer said crop conditions were the best for three years at this time of the year with its national index at 54 points compared with 50 points a year ago.
Reuters
